A Vegas Strategy in Iraq?
December 13, 2006 | 11:33
am
Today's LA Times talks about the military recommending a new strategy in Iraq. Julian E. Barnes writes:
As President Bush weighs new policy options for Iraq, strong support has coalesced in the Pentagon behind a military plan to 'double down' in the country with a substantial buildup in American troops, an increase in industrial aid and a major combat offensive against Muqtada Sadr, the radical Shiite leader impeding development of the Iraqi government.
A defense official quoted in the story amplifies:
I think it is worth trying...This is a double down.
So, I went to professional gambler and "Las Vegas Advisor" publisher Anthony Curtis to find out the strategy behind a 'double down' bet. Curtis notes:
A better term for them in this sense would be to 'redouble efforts.' In fact, I'm sure that's what they mean. Doubling down in blackjack means to wager more on a strong hand. It's a move that invites more risk, but garners an enhanced expected value (when done at the right time). Done at the wrong time, it can be quite harmful to your expected result.
Let's hope the military understands Iraq better than gambling; how scary to consider this: would you take that bet?
